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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.