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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."